Factbox-Big brokerages cut China growth forecast on growing worries over property sector

(Reuters) – Seven major brokerages cut China’s economic growth forecast for the year as worries about contagion from debt repayment troubles at its top private property developer Country Garden deepened.

There’s rising pressure on Beijing to deliver more stimulus to support the economy as it faces deflation and slower-than-expected growth in retail sales, industrial output and investment.

But Monday’s smaller-than-expected 10-basis-point cut in one-year benchmark lending rate, and an unchanged five-year rate underwhelmed investors.

Following are forecasts from some global banks:

Brokerage Current 2023 GDP Previous 2023

growth forecast GDP forecast

Morgan Stanley 4.7% 5%

J.P.Morgan 4.8% 5%

Barclays 4.5% 4.9%

Deutsche Bank 5% 5.3%


Nomura 4.6% 5.1%

UBS 4.8% 5.2%

Citigroup 4.7% 5%

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru)