JPMorgan ups Turkey inflation, interest rate forecasts

LONDON (Reuters) – Higher-than-expected inflation data for August published on Monday prompted JPMorgan to revise its year-end inflation forecast to 65% from 62% with the annual rate now expected to peak at 73% in May 2024, according to the Wall Street bank.

The bank also said it saw upside risks to its year-end policy rate forecast, which it kept at 35%, but predicted that the central bank’s key interest rate would end next year at 45% rather than previous estimates of 40%.

“August CPI suggests protracted disinflation process,” JPMorgan’s Fatih Akcelik said in a note to clients.

“Since we expect persistent inflation, we forecast more monetary tightening to address inflationary pressures after March 2024 municipal elections.”

Turkey’s annual inflation rate surged to a higher-than-expected 58.94% in August, official data showed earlier on Monday, rising for a second month after a steep fall in the lira currency and recent tax increases.

(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, editing by Alun John)