As the buzz surrounding weight-loss drugs gets ever louder, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict the market for such products could reach $100 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly & Co. and Novo Nordisk A/S leading the pack.
(Bloomberg) — As the buzz surrounding weight-loss drugs gets ever louder, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict the market for such products could reach $100 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly & Co. and Novo Nordisk A/S leading the pack.
Goldman’s prediction is the latest in a series to foresee triple-digit billion sales in the anti-obesity market, fueled in particular by recent clinical trial results showing that Novo’s Wegovy reduced not just weight but also the risk of heart attacks and strokes.
Barclays Plc analysts estimated in April that the market could reach $100 billion by 2033, while those at Berenberg have previously predicted an $85 billion market by 2030.
Goldman’s projection is based on roughly 15 million US adults receiving anti-obesity medicine treatment for chronic weight loss management in 2030, out of about 105 million obese or overweight adults in the US. That doesn’t include diabetics.
“The chronic weight management market is undergoing an inflection,” analysts including Chris Shibutani wrote in a note. They see scope for “solid growth ahead and a peak opportunity that, by our estimates, could ultimately yield some of the highest grossing drugs of all time.”
Eli Lilly, whose pipeline of drugs includes Mounjaro, is now the world’s biggest health-care company by market value. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk became Europe’s most valuable listed company last month, boosted by market enthusiasm for its Ozempic and Wegovy drugs. Shares of both companies have surged this year.
Novo Nordisk’s drugs for diabetes and weight loss, a class of medicines known as GLP-1s, share the same active ingredient called semaglutide. They work by suppressing the appetite as well as slowing the movement of food through the digestive tract. Meanwhile, Lilly’s tirzepatide — already approved for diabetes as Mounjaro — is expected to enter the weight-loss market with an approval for obesity expected by the end of the year.
Consensus expectations suggest Lilly and Novo Nordisk will have a duopoly, in which the two drugmakers will capture about 80% of the obesity market in 2030, according to the Goldman analysts. “A dominant leadership position can be maintained at this level,” they wrote.
–With assistance from Michael Msika and Naomi Kresge.
(Updates with other estimates of market size in third paragraph)
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