TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada’s economy gained a net 17,500 jobs in October, entirely in part-time work, and the jobless rate rose to 5.7%, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.
Employment in the goods producing sector grew by a net 7,500 jobs, largely in construction. The services sector was up by a net 10,000 positions, mostly in information, culture and recreation, as well as health care and social assistance.
MARKET REACTION: CAD/
JAMES ORLANDO, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT TD BANK
“When the Bank of Canada decided to hold rates at 5% last week, it did so because of a notable slowing in economic momentum. While this has been apparent in reduced consumer spending and a weakening housing market, the labour market left the BoC wanting more. But, given the rise in the unemployment rate and continued weakening in the underlying details, today’s report is likely to make the BoC feel more comfortable about its decision to hold.”
“Looking forward, we are expecting this employment trend to continue, while high rates and persistent inflation make the case for the BoC to remain on hold in December.”
MICHAEL GREENBERG, SVP AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS
The “headline figure is a little lower quality than the number suggests. The key is the unemployment rate ticked up again to 5.7% and that’s continuing that march higher from 5% back in the spring so that’s clearly weakening and also wage growth, although still at pretty robust levels, came in below expectations.”
“So I think when we take it all together, still a relatively strong labor market but definitely some slowing trends in there. We look at that plus other economic data….it does suggest some patience from the Bank of Canada and we expect they’ll remain on hold.”
“I think the rate hikes already in the system are going to continue to slow the economy and Canada being probably fairly interest rate sensitive is vulnerable to larger slowdowns at the end of this year or as we go into 2024.”
“So we’ll have to see what that means for the Bank of Canada but our view is they are probably done and the next move, although not imminent, is probably down. But I think they will be patient at holding rates higher for longer.”
DEREK HOLT, VICE PRESIDENT OF CAPITAL MARKETS ECONOMICS AT SCOTIABANK:
“So most of the jobs were part time. There were only a couple of sectors that were noticeably up. So for the most part, it’s a generally soft tone. We still stayed on the plus side. In terms of Bank of Canada, we got another set of jobs numbers before their next decision and a lot more data before the December meeting. But at the margin, I don’t think this really affects things much either way relative to what’s priced.”
“I would suggest you’ve got some (growth) weakness extending or straddling the transition from Q3 to Q4. You’d really need to see some strong holiday shopping and end of year activity in order to get a beat on Q4.”
(Reporting by Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith; Editing by Denny Thomas)